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SPC Jan 4, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z


Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through
early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be focused along the
northern Gulf Coast as an upper trough (currently approaching the
Four Corners) and attendant surface low traverse the lower MS River
Valley/northern Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. 

...Northern Gulf Coast...
A gradual de-amplification of the upper trough is anticipated during
this period, and the strongest broad-scale ascent will likely reside
over the southern Plains within the left-exit region of a 60-80 knot
mid-level jet. However, a residual baroclinic zone currently draped
across the western/central Gulf will advance poleward amid
strengthening south/southeasterly winds as an effective warm front
by early Friday morning. Scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period
within this warm advection regime along the TX coast. Further
intensification of the surface low and strengthening of the
low-level kinematic fields are expected through the
afternoon/overnight as broad-scale ascent increases with the
approach of the main trough axis. A fairly robust kinematic
environment will likely be in place with most guidance suggesting
0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-400 m2/s2 within and just north of
the warm frontal zone. 

However, due to the recent frontal passage over the past 24 hours, a
cool, dry airmass is in place across much of southern LA, MS, AL,
and the FL Panhandle, and should remain in place through early
Friday. As a result, any effective warm sector will likely reside
immediately ahead of the surface low within a relatively narrow
spatial corridor. Furthermore, most guidance casts considerable
doubt on how far inland this warm sector will advect. Semi-discrete,
surface-based cells that can develop within the warm advection
regime preceding the surface low and trailing cold front may take on
supercellular characteristics with an attendant tornado threat as
they move towards shore, though this threat appears limited to
coastal areas for now and is conditional on adequate low-level
theta-e reaching land. Regardless, a signal for a band of more
strongly forced (though possibly elevated) convection is noted along
the trailing cold front. Given elongated hodographs within the
effective layer, and somewhat orthogonal flow relative to the
anticipated orientation of the front, an organized band seems
possible and may pose a damaging wind threat - especially if
convection can become rooted near the surface.

..Moore/Gleason.. 01/04/2024

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