Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 4 Administrators Share Posted January 4 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be focused along the northern Gulf Coast as an upper trough (currently approaching the Four Corners) and attendant surface low traverse the lower MS River Valley/northern Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. ...Northern Gulf Coast... A gradual de-amplification of the upper trough is anticipated during this period, and the strongest broad-scale ascent will likely reside over the southern Plains within the left-exit region of a 60-80 knot mid-level jet. However, a residual baroclinic zone currently draped across the western/central Gulf will advance poleward amid strengthening south/southeasterly winds as an effective warm front by early Friday morning. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within this warm advection regime along the TX coast. Further intensification of the surface low and strengthening of the low-level kinematic fields are expected through the afternoon/overnight as broad-scale ascent increases with the approach of the main trough axis. A fairly robust kinematic environment will likely be in place with most guidance suggesting 0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-400 m2/s2 within and just north of the warm frontal zone. However, due to the recent frontal passage over the past 24 hours, a cool, dry airmass is in place across much of southern LA, MS, AL, and the FL Panhandle, and should remain in place through early Friday. As a result, any effective warm sector will likely reside immediately ahead of the surface low within a relatively narrow spatial corridor. Furthermore, most guidance casts considerable doubt on how far inland this warm sector will advect. Semi-discrete, surface-based cells that can develop within the warm advection regime preceding the surface low and trailing cold front may take on supercellular characteristics with an attendant tornado threat as they move towards shore, though this threat appears limited to coastal areas for now and is conditional on adequate low-level theta-e reaching land. Regardless, a signal for a band of more strongly forced (though possibly elevated) convection is noted along the trailing cold front. Given elongated hodographs within the effective layer, and somewhat orthogonal flow relative to the anticipated orientation of the front, an organized band seems possible and may pose a damaging wind threat - especially if convection can become rooted near the surface. ..Moore/Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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