Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 4 Administrators Posted January 4 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream trough will continue eastward from the Southwest Deserts/far northwest Mexico early today toward the southern Plains by tonight. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved mid-level speed max that will nose into western Texas during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. Sporadic weak thunderstorms are expected today across parts of New Mexico into west/northwest Texas. ...East/Southeast Texas... Air mass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico will lead to steady low-level moistening for coastal areas late tonight into early Friday, with thunderstorm potential increasing. The primary warm sector and evolving surface wave should remain focused just off the Texas coast late tonight, although it is conceivable that a few strong near-surface-based storms/weak supercells could occur just offshore/near the middle Texas coast, with thunderstorms otherwise progressively more elevated and generally weaker inland (northward) across the remainder of east/southeast Texas. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted given expectations that a stable surface layer will likely persist over inland areas, but this scenario will be monitored and reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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