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SPC Jan 4, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.

A southern-stream trough will continue eastward from the Southwest
Deserts/far northwest Mexico early today toward the southern Plains
by tonight. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved
mid-level speed max that will nose into western Texas during the
late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates.
Sporadic weak thunderstorms are expected today across parts of New
Mexico into west/northwest Texas.

...East/Southeast Texas...
Air mass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico will lead to
steady low-level moistening for coastal areas late tonight into
early Friday, with thunderstorm potential increasing. The primary
warm sector and evolving surface wave should remain focused just off
the Texas coast late tonight, although it is conceivable that a few
strong near-surface-based storms/weak supercells could occur just
offshore/near the middle Texas coast, with thunderstorms otherwise
progressively more elevated and generally weaker inland (northward)
across the remainder of east/southeast Texas. Severe probabilities
do not currently appear warranted given expectations that a stable
surface layer will likely persist over inland areas, but this
scenario will be monitored and reevaluated in subsequent outlooks.

..Guyer/Smith.. 01/04/2024

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