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SPC Jan 4, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.

Very little change appears necessary to the ongoing outlook at this
time, based on current meteorological evolution.  The most
substantial change has been to remove the small thunder area over
the Florida Keys, as any risk for lightning appears to have moved

Occasional/embedded lightning is expected to evolve across parts of
New Mexico and eastward across portions of Texas, within the
envelope of convection occurring near and downstream of the upper
system crossing the Four Corners states.

..Goss.. 01/04/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/

A pronounced mid-level trough will impinge on the Southern Plains as
another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface
high pressure and cooler air will overspread the eastern CONUS,
limiting thunderstorm potential, while low-level moisture and
marginal buoyancy will return northward across parts of the
south-central U.S. Cold air aloft associated with the passing
mid-level trough may support isolated lightning flashes across
central NM into central TX through the period. However, slightly
better chances for thunderstorm development will be associated with
the warm-air advection regime over the TX coastline later tonight.

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