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SPC Jan 4, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z


Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through
early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

...Coastal Southeast...
A large -- but weakening -- upper trough is forecast to sweep
eastward across the central/southern Plains during the day Friday,
and then continue eastward across the southeastern quarter of the
country into the overnight hours.

As this occurs, an attendant surface low is forecast to shift
eastward across the Gulf Coast region, along a surface baroclinic
zone expected to lift very slowly northward across the northern
Gulf, and potentially/eventually inland into coastal areas.

A preceding cool/continental airmass inland will be slow to retreat,
with elevated/warm-advection precipitation likely to evolve north of
the warm front which should further impede inland advance of the
boundary.  Still, models continue to suggest weak surface-based
destabilization will occur across coastal counties, within a narrow
window just ahead of the advancing low, mainly through late
afternoon and into the overnight hours, from southeastern Louisiana
eastward to the Florida Panhandle.  

While elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected well north of
the surface front, any severe risk will likely be confined to
coastal areas just ahead of the low, near and perhaps just north of
the surface warm front.  While limited instability should temper
severe risk, strong/veering winds with height will provide a
favorable kinematic environment for conditional supercell potential.
 As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible across this region,
along with risk for locally strong/damaging wind gusts.  Risk will
shift from west to east with time, reaching the Florida Big Bend
area by sunrise Saturday.

..Goss.. 01/04/2024

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