Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 5 Administrators Share Posted January 5 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, perhaps accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... Within the prevailing split flow over the eastern Pacific, models indicate considerable amplification of mid/upper ridging across the mid-latitudes through early Saturday. This ridging may build further while slowly approaching the North American Pacific coast Saturday through Saturday night As it does, a significant downstream short wave trough is forecast to dig inland of the U.S Pacific coast, while a weaker perturbation to its south slowly pivots across the subtropical eastern Pacific toward southern Baja. Farther downstream, the mid-latitude and subtropical streams will remain largely in phase east of the southern Rockies and Mexican Plateau through the Atlantic Seaboard, around the northern periphery of subtropical ridging centered at mid-levels over the Caribbean. A lead short wave perturbation within this regime is forecast to be in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley 12Z Saturday, before becoming increasingly sheared and weakening while continuing northeastward through the remainder of the period. In its wake, a trailing perturbation is generally forecast to accelerate east of the southern Rockies toward the southern Appalachians. Substantive spread remains evident among the various models concerning these developments, and associated surface cyclogenesis across the eastern Gulf/southern Mid Atlantic Coast states vicinity. However, the more substantive deepening may not occur until Saturday night, offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. ...South Atlantic Coast... North of the Florida Peninsula, destabilization, coincident with favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, still appears likely to be rooted above saturated thermodynamic profiles with moist adiabatic (or more stable) lapse rates across the Georgia/Carolina coastal plain, or colder/more stable near-surface air farther inland. The development of only rather weak CAPE is forecast, limited by weak lapse rates farther aloft, and severe weather potential currently appears negligible, despite the strong deep-layer mean wind fields and shear. Building mid/upper ridging is generally forecast across much of the Florida Peninsula into and through the period, and relatively warm thermodynamic profiles characterized by weak lapse rates in upper levels may limit the potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. During the day, warming in mid-levels, and the tendency for low-level flow to veer to a westerly component (resulting in weak low-level convergence), may further inhibit the risk for severe thunderstorm development. However, there is spread among the models concerning the timing of these developments, and there may be a window of opportunity for sufficient destabilization over inland areas to maintain thunderstorm activity spreading inland off the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If this occurs, it probably will coincide with sufficiently strong wind fields and shear for organized convection, including supercells, posing a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and/or a couple of tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 01/05/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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