Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 5 Administrators Share Posted January 5 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon through early Saturday morning across the coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the OH/TN Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern LA and MS by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization over most of the area, the exception being portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. Shear will be strong, with any severe potential conditional on the development of SBCAPE. ...Coastal LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... Substantial thunderstorm coverage is possible shortly after 12Z this morning near or just off the TX Coast, as lift along a cold front interacts with increasing low-level moisture. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected within the warm-advection regime ahead of the cold front, as positive theta-e advection occurs just above the cool boundary over land. Little to no heating is anticipated due to the rapid influx of moisture, and minimal temperature advection is expected at the surface over most inland counties. The exception may be along the Gulf Coast, where forecast soundings do indicate rising dewpoints at least into the mid 60s F, just ahead of the cold front. As such, the severe risk, including the risk for brief tornadoes or damaging gusts, appears to be confined to the coastal counties, and primarily overnight. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 01/05/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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