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SPC Jan 5, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z


Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula
Saturday, perhaps accompanied by at least some risk for damaging
wind gusts and a tornado or two.

Within the prevailing split flow over the eastern Pacific, models
indicate considerable amplification of mid/upper ridging across the
mid-latitudes through early Saturday.  This ridging may build
further while slowly approaching the North American Pacific coast
Saturday through Saturday night  As it does, a significant
downstream short wave trough is forecast to dig inland of the U.S
Pacific coast, while a weaker perturbation to its south slowly
pivots across the subtropical eastern Pacific toward southern Baja.

Farther downstream, the mid-latitude and subtropical streams will
remain largely in phase east of the southern Rockies and Mexican
Plateau through the Atlantic Seaboard, around the northern periphery
of subtropical ridging centered at mid-levels over the Caribbean.  A
lead short wave perturbation within this regime is forecast to be in
the process of accelerating east-northeast of the middle Mississippi
Valley 12Z Saturday, before becoming increasingly sheared and
weakening while continuing northeastward through the remainder of
the period.  In its wake, a trailing perturbation is generally
forecast to accelerate east of the southern Rockies toward the
southern Appalachians.  Substantive spread remains evident among the
various models concerning these developments, and associated surface
cyclogenesis across the eastern Gulf/southern Mid Atlantic Coast
states vicinity.  However, the more substantive deepening may not
occur until Saturday night, offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast.

...South Atlantic Coast...
North of the Florida Peninsula, destabilization, coincident with
favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, still appears likely to be
rooted above saturated thermodynamic profiles with moist adiabatic
(or more stable) lapse rates across the Georgia/Carolina coastal
plain, or colder/more stable near-surface air farther inland.  The
development of only rather weak CAPE is forecast, limited by weak
lapse rates farther aloft, and severe weather potential currently
appears negligible, despite the strong deep-layer mean wind fields
and shear.

Building mid/upper ridging is generally forecast across much of the
Florida Peninsula into and through the period, and relatively warm
thermodynamic profiles characterized by weak lapse rates in upper
levels may limit the potential for appreciable boundary-layer
destabilization.  During the day, warming in mid-levels, and the
tendency for low-level flow to veer to a westerly component
(resulting in weak low-level convergence), may further inhibit the
risk for severe thunderstorm development.  However, there is spread
among the models concerning the timing of these developments, and
there may be a window of opportunity for sufficient destabilization
over inland areas to maintain thunderstorm activity spreading inland
off the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  If this occurs, it probably will
coincide with sufficiently strong wind fields and shear for
organized convection, including supercells, posing a risk for
locally damaging wind gusts and/or a couple of tornadoes.

..Kerr.. 01/05/2024

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