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SPC Jan 5, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z


The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Sunday through Sunday night.

Models are similar concerning the depiction of the evolving
large-scale flow across the eastern Pacific into western North
America through this period.  A significant amplification within
this regime appears likely to continue an eastward translation,
inland of the Pacific coast into the Great Plains by 12Z Monday. 
While another vigorous short wave impulse may contribute to
suppression of the northwestern periphery of prominent mid-level
ridging slowly shifting into the Pacific coast, a series of short
wave troughs digging inland of the coast, as far south as the
Southwestern international border area, are forecast to contribute
to the evolution of a large mid-level trough across the southern
Great Basin into Great Plains.  It appears that this trough may
gradually begin to come in phase with troughing in a branch of
westerlies emanating from the eastern subtropical Pacific, and a low
may consolidate within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the
southern Rockies (across the Texas Panhandle vicinity), by daybreak

In the wake of a surface cyclone, associated with less amplified
downstream mid-level troughing accelerating off the Atlantic
Seaboard, the boundary layer over much of the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico will be in the process of recovery from a prior cold
intrusion.  However models indicate that, rapid, albeit modest,
low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is
possible by late Sunday night.  This may contribute to weak
boundary-layer destabilization beneath capping elevated mixed-layer
air across the lower/middle Texas coast, and weak destabilization
above a residual cold/stable surface-based air mass farther inland,
as the environment further aloft cools.  Coupled with strengthening
mid/upper forcing for ascent, scattered weak thunderstorms may
initiate across parts of northwest Texas into south central Kansas, 
as well as within an evolving lower/mid-tropospheric regime across
south central into southeastern Texas, prior to 12Z Monday.

Weak boundary-layer destabilization (accompanied by low
probabilities for thunderstorms) is also possible across the
southern Florida Peninsula and Keys vicinity prior to a frontal
passage Sunday afternoon, as well as beneath the mid-level cold core
overspreading the Mogollon Rim vicinity of Arizona during the peak
afternoon heating.

..Kerr.. 01/05/2024

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