Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 5 Administrators Share Posted January 5 SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models are similar concerning the depiction of the evolving large-scale flow across the eastern Pacific into western North America through this period. A significant amplification within this regime appears likely to continue an eastward translation, inland of the Pacific coast into the Great Plains by 12Z Monday. While another vigorous short wave impulse may contribute to suppression of the northwestern periphery of prominent mid-level ridging slowly shifting into the Pacific coast, a series of short wave troughs digging inland of the coast, as far south as the Southwestern international border area, are forecast to contribute to the evolution of a large mid-level trough across the southern Great Basin into Great Plains. It appears that this trough may gradually begin to come in phase with troughing in a branch of westerlies emanating from the eastern subtropical Pacific, and a low may consolidate within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies (across the Texas Panhandle vicinity), by daybreak Monday. In the wake of a surface cyclone, associated with less amplified downstream mid-level troughing accelerating off the Atlantic Seaboard, the boundary layer over much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will be in the process of recovery from a prior cold intrusion. However models indicate that, rapid, albeit modest, low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is possible by late Sunday night. This may contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization beneath capping elevated mixed-layer air across the lower/middle Texas coast, and weak destabilization above a residual cold/stable surface-based air mass farther inland, as the environment further aloft cools. Coupled with strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent, scattered weak thunderstorms may initiate across parts of northwest Texas into south central Kansas, as well as within an evolving lower/mid-tropospheric regime across south central into southeastern Texas, prior to 12Z Monday. Weak boundary-layer destabilization (accompanied by low probabilities for thunderstorms) is also possible across the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys vicinity prior to a frontal passage Sunday afternoon, as well as beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Mogollon Rim vicinity of Arizona during the peak afternoon heating. ..Kerr.. 01/05/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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