Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 5 Administrators Posted January 5 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Within the mid-latitude westerlies, significant mid-level troughing digging into the Southwest by early Monday is forecast to continue generally digging across and east of the southern Rockies Monday through Monday night. As it does, models indicate that it will come increasingly in phase with a perturbation within a branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, before pivoting across the lower Mississippi Valley through the upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic Tuesday into early Wednesday. Associated forcing for ascent is forecast to support the evolution of a broad and deep cyclone, with an initial surface low consolidating within deepening surface troughing across the Texas Panhandle by Monday morning, before gradually migrating eastward near/north of the Red River through the day Monday. The most rapid deepening, however, may not commence until Monday night, centered across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South, before proceeding northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Wednesday. In the wake of a prior intrusion of cold/dry air, boundary-layer recovery across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico may be slow to contribute to destabilization inland of coastal areas. Additionally, there has been a signal in model output that considerable warm advection driven convection near or offshore of north central Gulf coastal areas may further impede, or at least slow, inland moisture return. However, in response to the more rapid deepening of the surface cyclone, it appears that an increasingly moist warm sector boundary-layer will spread inland across the Gulf Coast, near/east of the Mississippi River by late Monday night, before surging east-northeastward through portions of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coast states on Tuesday. Coincident with intensifying deep-layer wind fields and shear, including potentially large clockwise curved low-level hodographs, the environment may become conducive to considerable organized severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, with potential to produce damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes. Thereafter, mid-level ridging within the persistent split flow across the eastern Pacific may undergo considerable further amplification by late next week, with deepening downstream large-scale troughing evolving inland of the Pacific coast. This may be preceded by another short wave trough emerging from the Southwest, which might support renewed cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. However, more uncertainty lingers concerning these developments, and destabilization in the wake of the early week cyclone. Read more View the full article Quote
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