SPC Jan 5, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Within the mid-latitude westerlies, significant mid-level troughing
digging into the Southwest by early Monday is forecast to continue
generally digging across and east of the southern Rockies Monday
through Monday night.  As it does, models indicate that it will come
increasingly in phase with a perturbation within a branch of
westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, before
pivoting across the lower Mississippi Valley through the upper Ohio
Valley and Mid Atlantic Tuesday into early Wednesday.  Associated
forcing for ascent is forecast to support the evolution of a broad
and deep cyclone, with an initial surface low consolidating within
deepening surface troughing across the Texas Panhandle by Monday
morning, before gradually migrating eastward near/north of the Red
River through the day Monday.  The most rapid deepening, however,
may not commence until Monday night, centered across the Ozark
Plateau/Mid South, before proceeding northeastward through the lower
Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec by
12Z Wednesday.

In the wake of a prior intrusion of cold/dry air, boundary-layer
recovery across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico may be slow to
contribute to destabilization inland of coastal areas. 
Additionally, there has been a signal in model output that
considerable warm advection driven convection near or offshore of
north central Gulf coastal areas may further impede, or at least
slow, inland moisture return.  However, in response to the more
rapid deepening of the surface cyclone, it appears that an
increasingly moist warm sector boundary-layer will spread inland
across the Gulf Coast, near/east of the Mississippi River by late
Monday night, before surging east-northeastward through portions of
the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coast states on Tuesday. 
Coincident with intensifying deep-layer wind fields and shear,
including potentially large clockwise curved low-level hodographs,
the environment may become conducive to considerable organized
severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, with
potential to produce damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes.

Thereafter, mid-level ridging within the persistent split flow
across the eastern Pacific may undergo considerable further
amplification by late next week, with deepening downstream
large-scale troughing evolving inland of the Pacific coast.  This
may be preceded by another short wave trough emerging from the
Southwest, which might support renewed cyclogenesis to the lee of
the southern Rockies.  However, more uncertainty lingers concerning
these developments, and destabilization in the wake of the early
week cyclone.

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