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SPC Jan 5, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today
through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move
toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and
will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by
Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will
precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and
Southeast.

At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of
Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern
Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will
exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high
over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization
aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast.

...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle...
A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the
predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the
middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular
development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints
have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident
with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of
moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense
convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally
continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning,
although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to
occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern
Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development.

Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by
60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support
fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak
destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of
the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and
generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas
through tonight.

..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024

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