Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 5 Administrators Posted January 5 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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