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SPC Jan 5, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula
Saturday, with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and a
tornado or two.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward
from parts of the Southeast/TN Valley toward the Mid Atlantic by
mid/late afternoon, and off of the southern New England coast by
early Sunday morning. An attendant surface low will move from south
GA toward the VA Tidewater by Saturday evening, as a trailing cold
front moves through parts of the Carolinas/GA into the FL Peninsula.

...Florida...
In conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough, rather widespread
and organized convection is expected over the Gulf of Mexico late
Friday night into the beginning of the D2 forecast period Saturday
morning, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared
environment. This convection will begin to affect portions of the FL
Gulf Coast during the morning, though some weakening trend is
expected as storms encounter a less unstable environment over the
peninsula. While there will be some potential for pre-convective
heating and moistening across south and east FL during the day,
storms may struggle to maintain intensity across the peninsula due
to weak midlevel lapse rates and the tendency for stronger
large-scale ascent to depart the region in association with the
ejecting shortwave trough.  

Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support the threat of
a tornado or two and locally damaging gusts with any organized storm
structures that can be sustained over coastal regions into the
peninsula. With favorable wind profiles expected, but also concerns
regarding instability and storm maintenance over the peninsula, a
broad Marginal Risk has been maintained over much of the FL
Peninsula.

...Eastern Carolinas...
With the surface low expected to track northeastward toward the
Tidewater vicinity, the effective warm sector will likely advance
into eastern portions of the Carolinas. However, with antecedent
cool/dry conditions over the region, increasing boundary-layer
moisture will be accompanied by substantial cloudiness and limited
potential for destabilization. At this time, potential for robust
surface-based convection appears too limited for severe
probabilities across the eastern Carolinas, but this potential will
continue to be monitored.

..Dean.. 01/05/2024

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