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SPC Jan 5, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z


Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast this
afternoon through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana,
Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

...20Z Update...
The Marginal Risk and general thunderstorm areas have been trimmed
from the west across parts of the TX and LA Gulf Coasts, to reflect
the eastward advance of extensive convection extending from the
northwest Gulf of Mexico into southern LA. Otherwise, no changes
have been made. Substantial organized convection is expected to
remain mostly over the Gulf of Mexico through tonight, with only
very weak surface-based instability expected inland. However, some
threat for a tornado or two and/or locally damaging wind could
spread inland as stronger storms over the Gulf approach the coast.
See the previous discussion below for more information.

..Dean.. 01/05/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/

...Gulf Coast Region...
Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing
eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending
across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico.  A surface low
associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south
of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from
the coast southward into the Gulf.  Low-level trajectories have been
slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward
transport of rich moisture/instability.  Onshore thunderstorm
activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s,
and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon.

Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective 
elements well offshore, tracking northeastward.  With continued
daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and
drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening.  Shear
profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how
far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread.  Any
storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk
of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado.  A similar threat will
persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the
MS/AL/FL coast.

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