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SPC Jan 6, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across the coastal Florida
Panhandle later tonight.

...Discussion...
Surface analysis shows a stable boundary layer over the Gulf Coast,
with only 50s F dewpoints over much of the area. The exception is
over far southeast LA, where lower 60s F dewpoints remain. The air
mass here, as well as farther northeast into coastal MS/AL/western
FL Panhandle, will experience widespread precipitation this evening
and overnight due to warm advection just above the boundary layer.
This will continue to be the primary mitigating factor for severe
potential. 

Late tonight, mid 60s F dewpoints are forecast to move ashore across
the FL Panhandle, as strong southwest flow ahead of the upper trough
persist. Precise instability measures are difficult given expected
antecedent rainfall, but 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE may eventually
materialize. Forecast soundings indicate most of this CAPE will be
ineffective due to the cool boundary layer. However, uncapped SBCAPE
may develop along the immediate coast, which could conditionally
support isolated severe gusts or even a brief tornado. As such, low
severe probabilities have been maintained over the area.

..Jewell.. 01/06/2024

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