Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 5 Administrators Share Posted January 5 SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PARTS OF THE LA/MS/AL/FL GULF COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast this afternoon through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk and general thunderstorm areas have been trimmed from the west across parts of the TX and LA Gulf Coasts, to reflect the eastward advance of extensive convection extending from the northwest Gulf of Mexico into southern LA. Otherwise, no changes have been made. Substantial organized convection is expected to remain mostly over the Gulf of Mexico through tonight, with only very weak surface-based instability expected inland. However, some threat for a tornado or two and/or locally damaging wind could spread inland as stronger storms over the Gulf approach the coast. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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