Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 6 Administrators Share Posted January 6 SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across the coastal Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...Discussion... Surface analysis shows a stable boundary layer over the Gulf Coast, with only 50s F dewpoints over much of the area. The exception is over far southeast LA, where lower 60s F dewpoints remain. The air mass here, as well as farther northeast into coastal MS/AL/western FL Panhandle, will experience widespread precipitation this evening and overnight due to warm advection just above the boundary layer. This will continue to be the primary mitigating factor for severe potential. Late tonight, mid 60s F dewpoints are forecast to move ashore across the FL Panhandle, as strong southwest flow ahead of the upper trough persist. Precise instability measures are difficult given expected antecedent rainfall, but 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE may eventually materialize. Forecast soundings indicate most of this CAPE will be ineffective due to the cool boundary layer. However, uncapped SBCAPE may develop along the immediate coast, which could conditionally support isolated severe gusts or even a brief tornado. As such, low severe probabilities have been maintained over the area. ..Jewell.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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