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SPC Jan 6, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z


The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Sunday through Sunday night.

Within one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the
mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate at least some suppression of
initially amplified mid-level ridging approaching the Pacific coast.
However, a couple of short wave perturbations digging to its east,
through the Southwestern international border vicinity, are forecast
to continue to contribute to the evolution of larger-scale mid-level
troughing inland of the Pacific coast and as far east as the Great
Plains by 12Z Monday.

As this occurs, remnant preceding mid-level troughing to the east of
the Mississippi Valley is forecast to progress across the Atlantic
Seaboard during the day Sunday.  A more rapid offshore acceleration
appears likely Sunday night, accompanied by a modest occluded
surface cyclone initially developing into areas just offshore of the
northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England coast by early Sunday. 
As a trailing cold front advances southeast of the southern Florida
Peninsula and Keys by Sunday afternoon, generally dry and/or stable
conditions are likely to prevail across much of the U.S., and the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

An isolated weak thunderstorm or two might still be possible ahead
of the front early Sunday near southern Florida coastal areas and in
the vicinity of the Keys.  Additionally, beneath the cold mid-level
air overspreading the southern Great Basin through southern Rockies,
scattered convection capable of producing lightning might not
entirely be out of the question, mainly near the Mogollon Rim during
peak afternoon heating.  But, otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms
appears generally negligible across much of the U.S. into Sunday

By late Sunday night, it still appears that a low will consolidate
within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern
Rockies, generally across the Texas Panhandle vicinity.  Coinciding
strengthening of southerly low-level flow probably will include 50+
kt around 850 mb, as far south as the lower Rio Grande Valley/lower
Texas coast vicinity.  This may support a more rapid, albeit still
modest, low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.  Coupled with strengthening forcing for ascent in the exit
region of a mid-level jet nosing into the Texas South Plains
vicinity, and a separate band of lower/mid tropospheric warm
advection across parts of south central into southeast Texas,
elevated destabilization may become sufficient to initiate scattered
weak thunderstorms prior to 12Z Monday.

..Kerr.. 01/06/2024

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