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SPC Jan 6, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z


Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula
today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds.

A shortwave trough will lose amplitude as it moves quickly from the
southern Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic during the day, providing
lift via cooling aloft and low-level warm advection. South of there,
wind will veer as the wave exits to the northeast. Winds around 850
mb will be strong ahead of the low, with speeds over 60 kt out of
the south across NC.

At the surface, low pressure is forecast to deepen as it moves in
tandem with the upper wave, with a cold front extending
southwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the western
FL Peninsula. Gradual warming will occur across the coastal
Carolinas with a warm front, though this may be counteracted by
precipitation. Farther south, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will over
spread much of FL, but instability will be weak.

Storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front, extending from
northern FL into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest storms
are forecast to remain over the water, as poor low-level lapse rates
and thus weaker instability will exist over land. The greatest
chance of isolated strong gusts or a perhaps a brief tornado appears
to be with storms moving ashore during the day, as the regime
translates southward along the coast. Shear will be strongest
through midday, prior to the veering wind regime in the wake of the
upper trough. 

...Coastal Carolinas...
Shear will remain strong over the region even as the upper wave
loses amplitude. As the surface low travels from SC into eastern VA
during the day, modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with
low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the low. Widespread clouds and
precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting instability.

Forecast sounding show very strong shear with large, looping
hodographs, conditionally favorable for supercells. However, SBCAPE
is likely to remain over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland
progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still,
strong flow just off the surface cold aid wind gust potential with
any stronger convection. At this time, the threat appears too low to
introduce severe probabilities.

..Jewell/Lyons.. 01/06/2024

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