Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 6 Administrators Share Posted January 6 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will lose amplitude as it moves quickly from the southern Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic during the day, providing lift via cooling aloft and low-level warm advection. South of there, wind will veer as the wave exits to the northeast. Winds around 850 mb will be strong ahead of the low, with speeds over 60 kt out of the south across NC. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to deepen as it moves in tandem with the upper wave, with a cold front extending southwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the western FL Peninsula. Gradual warming will occur across the coastal Carolinas with a warm front, though this may be counteracted by precipitation. Farther south, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will over spread much of FL, but instability will be weak. ...FL... Storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front, extending from northern FL into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest storms are forecast to remain over the water, as poor low-level lapse rates and thus weaker instability will exist over land. The greatest chance of isolated strong gusts or a perhaps a brief tornado appears to be with storms moving ashore during the day, as the regime translates southward along the coast. Shear will be strongest through midday, prior to the veering wind regime in the wake of the upper trough. ...Coastal Carolinas... Shear will remain strong over the region even as the upper wave loses amplitude. As the surface low travels from SC into eastern VA during the day, modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting instability. Forecast sounding show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for supercells. However, SBCAPE is likely to remain over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, strong flow just off the surface cold aid wind gust potential with any stronger convection. At this time, the threat appears too low to introduce severe probabilities. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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