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SPC Jan 6, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook


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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models indicate that rapid, strong surface cyclogenesis
will proceed across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South northeastward
through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Tuesday.  While the
associated mid-level trough axis takes on an increasingly negative
tilt to the east of the Mississippi Valley, intense wind fields are
forecast to overspread much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic
Coast region, accompanied by a moistening and at least weakly
destabilizing warm sector.  It appears that this will include 50-80+
kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer, contributing
to very large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs.  Aided by
strong large-scale forcing for ascent, the evolution of an extensive
squall line with embedded and preceding discrete supercell
structures may be ongoing early Tuesday across parts of the eastern
Gulf States through northeastern Gulf of Mexico.  This seems likely
to pose a continuing risk for damaging wind gusts and a few
tornadoes, while accelerating northeastward and eastward through
much of the remainder of the Southeast by Tuesday evening.

Thereafter, short wave developments become more unclear into next
weekend.  However, following renewed amplification within the
persistent split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific,
models suggest that additional strong cyclogenesis is possible
across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley by late next
Thursday night into Friday/Saturday.

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