Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 6 Administrators Share Posted January 6 MD 0003 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR WESTERN NC...WESTERN INTO CENTRAL VA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN WV Mesoscale Discussion 0003 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...western NC...western into central VA...far southeastern WV Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 060828Z - 061430Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain is forecast to develop from southwest to northeast through 10am EST. Freezing rain rates will initially be light as the atmospheric column moistens, but rates are forecast to intensify into the 0.05-0.15 inch/3 hour range. A transition from freezing rain to rain is forecast to occur over western NC into southern portions of western VA primarily during the 7-10am EST period. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic as of 325am EST shows an extensive precipitation shield across GA into western SC and moving northeast into the southern Appalachians. This precipitation is in response to a mid-level shortwave trough moving northeast across the lower MS Valley early this morning. This mid-level feature is forecast to move into the southern Appalachians during the morning. Strong low-level warm-air advection and moistening via a warm conveyor belt are acting to enhance large-scale lift and contribute to a moistening atmospheric column during the pre-dawn hours across western NC into western/central VA. The latest ensemble model guidance (i.e., HREF, SREF) show agreement in depicting a swath of precipitation spreading north-northeast with hourly rates generally in the 0.05-0.15 inch range. Forecast soundings indicate thermal profiles supporting freezing rain as the primary precipitation type from western NC northward through much of western VA and adjacent southeastern WV. However, this shallow sub-freezing layer near the surface is forecast to slowly erode across western NC and southern parts of western VA as surface temperatures warm to 32 deg F or higher, primarily during the 7-10am EST period. Farther north, some intermittent mixing of freezing rain and sleet is possible especially on the northern periphery of the discussion area (i.e., northwestern parts of VA). ..Smith.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP... LAT...LON 37327841 36917897 36777954 36628003 36278078 35868160 35548205 35308234 35378265 35428265 35958223 36278170 36808133 37218127 37488119 37808091 38397955 38557864 38467786 38217781 37327841 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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