SPC MD 4

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 0004 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST COAST OF FL

Mesoscale Discussion 0004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024

Areas affected...west coast of FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 061253Z - 061530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A low risk for a localized damaging thunderstorm gust
and/or brief tornado will seemingly focus near the west coast of the
FL Peninsula through 11am EST.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a
mid-level shortwave trough over AL/GA and the FL Panhandle pivoting
northeast through the base of a larger-scale trough.  A pre-frontal
band of showers/thunderstorms extends from 175 mi west-southwest of
Sarasota northeastward to 20 mi west-northwest of Ocala as of 745am
EST.  Surface observations along the west coast ahead of the storm
activity indicate dewpoints generally in the 66-69 deg F range. 
Forecast soundings show a paucity of buoyancy farther north where
dewpoints are lower (i.e., mid 60s) but weak buoyancy from Pasco
County (100-200 J/kg MLCAPE; supported by the 12 UTC Tampa raob with
100 J/kg MLCAPE) southward to Charlotte Harbor (250-500 J/kg
MLCAPE).  The KTBW VAD shows around 550 m2/s2 0-1km SRH when
inputting observed storm motion.  Given the low CAPE/high shear
setup, it seems plausible some risk for localized damaging gusts
and/or a brief tornado will overspread the beaches and perhaps a row
of counties inland during the morning hours.  This thunderstorm
threat will shift southward along the coast during the morning with
the areas from Tampa Bay and areas north likely having a diminished
threat by mid-late morning and it shifting towards Charlotte Harbor
towards late morning.

..Smith/Guyer.. 01/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   29168274 29358251 29228223 28508233 27948243 27668236
            26778195 26488198 26438211 26508233 27348282 27988299
            28618280 28928283 29168274 

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