Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 6 Administrators Share Posted January 6 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk. ...Florida... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Florida Peninsula in advance of a cold front/surface wave over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest and most organized storms are ongoing offshore, roughly near/south of the Tampa Bay vicinity. This convection will gradually move inland as low-level moistening continues to occur today. Preceding cloud cover and stratiform precipitation should hinder lapse rates and overall heating, and may also hinder updraft parcel accelerations with storms as they cross the Peninsula. It is otherwise notable that low-level shear/SRH will continue to strengthen this morning through midday, before low-level winds tend to veer/weaken later in the day. The potential for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk will exist as storms move onshore, with a somewhat higher/more focused potential seemingly existing across parts of the west-central/southwest Peninsula through early afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low/mid-level winds will notably strengthen over the region today in conjunction with the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough. Modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the surface low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting overall instability. Forecast soundings show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for organized storms including supercells, buoyancy permitting. However, surface-based destabilization is likely to remain focused over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, convectively enhanced wind gusts are plausible across the region, although the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts currently appears low. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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