Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 6 Administrators Share Posted January 6 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that rapid, strong surface cyclogenesis will proceed across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Tuesday. While the associated mid-level trough axis takes on an increasingly negative tilt to the east of the Mississippi Valley, intense wind fields are forecast to overspread much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region, accompanied by a moistening and at least weakly destabilizing warm sector. It appears that this will include 50-80+ kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer, contributing to very large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. Aided by strong large-scale forcing for ascent, the evolution of an extensive squall line with embedded and preceding discrete supercell structures may be ongoing early Tuesday across parts of the eastern Gulf States through northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This seems likely to pose a continuing risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, while accelerating northeastward and eastward through much of the remainder of the Southeast by Tuesday evening. Thereafter, short wave developments become more unclear into next weekend. However, following renewed amplification within the persistent split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models suggest that additional strong cyclogenesis is possible across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley by late next Thursday night into Friday/Saturday. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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