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Mesoscale Discussion 0005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024

Areas affected...Parts of central/south FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 061551Z - 061715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging
wind may develop from late morning into early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...At 1545 UTC, organized convection is approaching parts
of the central/southern FL Gulf Coast from the Gulf of Mexico.
Morning observed soundings from KTBW and KMFL depicted only very
weak buoyancy, and substantial cloudiness and precipitation in
advance of the stronger storms will continue to limit
destabilization across much of the peninsula. However, some modest
heating/destabilization will be possible to the south of the more
extensive precipitation, where temperatures are currently rising
into the mid 70s F. 

Wind profiles (as noted on the TBW sounding and preconvective VWPs
from KTBW) remain quite favorable for organized convection, with
enlarged low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2)
supporting a conditional tornado threat if any supercells and/or
line-embedded mesovortices can be sustained inland later this
morning into the early afternoon. 

Later this afternoon, low-level flow will begin to veer and weaken
as the primary midlevel shortwave trough and surface low move
quickly northeastward away from the region. However, there may be a
period of time late this morning into the early afternoon where
organized convection will pose a threat of a couple tornadoes and
locally damaging wind. Watch issuance is possible depending on
short-term trends regarding destabilization and storm organization.

..Dean/Hart.. 01/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   27388248 27838228 27728099 27128048 26418052 26028075
            25928095 25878135 26048197 26338224 26478236 26618254
            26938255 27388248 

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