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Mesoscale Discussion 0006
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1047 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024

Areas affected...Central/Southern PA...Eastern WV
Panhandle...Western/Central MD...Far Northern VA

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 061647Z - 062145Z

SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to increase across the region
over the next several hours. Rates around 1"/hr are likely across
much of the area, with localized 2"/hr rate possible, particularly
across south-central PA.

DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude
shortwave trough over eastern TN, moving quickly northeastward.
Regional radar imagery shows a large area of precipitation across
the Mid-Atlantic and into southern portions of the Northeast, within
the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave. Attendant low-level flow
is forecast to strengthen over the next several hours as the
shortwave continues northeastward. Additionally, the attendant
surface low, which is currently over south-central NC, is expected
to deepen over the next few hours as it moves northeastward across
central NC and southeast VA. 

These factors will result in an area of strong low-level
frontogenesis over VA, with associated lift focused into
central/southern PA, the eastern WV Panhandle, western/central MD,
and far northern VA. Most of this area is currently experiencing
moderate snow, but snowfall rates are expected to increase over the
next few hours as the evolution described above occurs. Rates around
1"/hr are likely across much of the area, with some areas
experiencing 2"/hr, particularly south-central PA where banding
appears most likely. Highest rates are expected to be centered
around 20Z, with rates then likely diminishing over this area as the
shortwave continues northeastward.

..Mosier.. 01/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   39638023 40407968 41007844 41017668 40397599 39607652
            38947765 38657885 38988003 39638023 

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