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SPC Jan 6, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula
today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk.

...Florida...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Florida Peninsula in
advance of a cold front/surface wave over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The strongest and most organized storms are ongoing
offshore, roughly near/south of the Tampa Bay vicinity. 

This convection will gradually move inland as low-level moistening
continues to occur today. Preceding cloud cover and stratiform
precipitation should hinder lapse rates and overall heating, and may
also hinder updraft parcel accelerations with storms as they cross
the Peninsula. It is otherwise notable that low-level shear/SRH will
continue to strengthen this morning through midday, before low-level
winds tend to veer/weaken later in the day. 

The potential for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk will
exist as storms move onshore, with a somewhat higher/more focused
potential seemingly existing across parts of the
west-central/southwest Peninsula through early afternoon. For
additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Low/mid-level winds will notably strengthen over the region today in
conjunction with the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough. Modest
low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints
common ahead of the surface low. Widespread clouds and
precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting overall
instability.

Forecast soundings show very strong shear with large, looping
hodographs, conditionally favorable for organized storms including
supercells, buoyancy permitting. However, surface-based
destabilization is likely to remain focused over the Atlantic Ocean,
with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer
Banks. Still, convectively enhanced wind gusts are plausible across
the region, although the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts
currently appears low.

..Guyer/Smith.. 01/06/2024

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