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SPC Jan 6, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z


Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with
a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado.

...South FL...
Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas,
with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. 
Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead
of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing
transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay
over the past 1-2 hours.  The air mass ahead of these storms is
quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds
and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting
destabilization.  Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will
maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts
over parts of south FL this afternoon.  Refer to MCD #5 for further
short-term details.

...NC Coast this afternoon...
Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take
place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values
ahead of the associated cold front.  Present indications are that a
few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC
coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is
expected to remain offshore.

..Hart/Mosier.. 01/06/2024

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