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SPC Jan 6, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z


Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with
a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado.

A line of thunderstorms across southern Florida may continue to pose
some threat for damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the
afternoon and early evening before moving offshore. The greatest
potential for isolated damaging wind gusts will likely be associated
with the more progressive line segment oriented northeast to
southwest. In addition, occasional low-level rotation has been
observed with low-topped supercells ahead of this line. The AMX VWP
shows a wind profile which should be sufficient for some tornado
potential, but the lack of stronger forcing and more robust updraft
development should mitigate the tornado threat.

..Bentley.. 01/06/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/

...South FL...
Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas,
with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. 
Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead
of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing
transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay
over the past 1-2 hours.  The air mass ahead of these storms is
quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds
and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting
destabilization.  Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will
maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts
over parts of south FL this afternoon.  Refer to MCD #5 for further
short-term details.

...NC Coast this afternoon...
Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take
place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values
ahead of the associated cold front.  Present indications are that a
few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC
coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is
expected to remain offshore.

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