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MD 0007 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH FL
MD 0007 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024

Areas affected...Parts of south FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 062054Z - 062300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado and/or locally damaging wind
will persist through the remainder of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Occasional low/midlevel rotation has been noted with
storms moving across south FL this afternoon, most recently to the
southwest of Palm Beach. Widespread cloudiness and weak midlevel
lapse rates (as noted on the 18Z KEY sounding) continue to limit
instability across the region, though rich moisture (with low 70s F
dewpoints) is supporting MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, sufficient to
sustain organized convection within a favorably sheared environment.

While low-level flow is expected to gradually weaken and veer with
time, 0-1 km SRH still in the 150-250 m2/s2 range (as noted in
recent objective mesoanalyses and the KAMX VWP) will support the
potential for a tornado or two across south FL through the remainder
of the afternoon, if any supercells can be sustained. Some potential
for locally damaging wind may also develop, especially where
somewhat stronger heating has been noted this afternoon. With the
threat expected to remain rather isolated and limited in areal
extent, watch issuance is considered unlikely.

..Dean/Hart.. 01/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

LAT...LON   25628137 26108122 26888039 26998015 26777999 26238003
            25758014 25448030 25448085 25388113 25628137 

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