Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 6 Administrators Posted January 6 MD 0007 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH FL Mesoscale Discussion 0007 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...Parts of south FL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062054Z - 062300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado and/or locally damaging wind will persist through the remainder of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Occasional low/midlevel rotation has been noted with storms moving across south FL this afternoon, most recently to the southwest of Palm Beach. Widespread cloudiness and weak midlevel lapse rates (as noted on the 18Z KEY sounding) continue to limit instability across the region, though rich moisture (with low 70s F dewpoints) is supporting MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, sufficient to sustain organized convection within a favorably sheared environment. While low-level flow is expected to gradually weaken and veer with time, 0-1 km SRH still in the 150-250 m2/s2 range (as noted in recent objective mesoanalyses and the KAMX VWP) will support the potential for a tornado or two across south FL through the remainder of the afternoon, if any supercells can be sustained. Some potential for locally damaging wind may also develop, especially where somewhat stronger heating has been noted this afternoon. With the threat expected to remain rather isolated and limited in areal extent, watch issuance is considered unlikely. ..Dean/Hart.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... LAT...LON 25628137 26108122 26888039 26998015 26777999 26238003 25758014 25448030 25448085 25388113 25628137 Read more View the full article Quote
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