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SPC Jan 6, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Florida Sunday,
across the Southwest Sunday afternoon/evening and across the
southern Plains late Sunday night.

An active surface pattern will be present across the CONUS tomorrow
with a rapidly deepening surface low off the New England Coast and
another deepening cyclone in the southern High Plains. A continental
airmass in between these two systems will keep moisture mostly
offshore and limit thunderstorm potential for areas east of the
Mississippi except for far southern Florida. In this region, a few
thunderstorms are possible along the surface front, but likely will
not be severe due to weak lapse rates, front parallel flow, and
building heights.

As a surface cyclone deepens and moves into the southern High Plains
Sunday afternoon/evening, a strong low-level jet will develop and
begin return flow aloft. This, combined with cooling temperatures
aloft ahead of the deepening wave may result in enough elevated
instability for some thunderstorms between 06Z and 12Z from southern
Kansas across western Oklahoma and into north Texas. 

Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible beneath the upper-low
across mostly Arizona and also across southeast Texas late in the
period as isentropic ascent strengthens and moisture return off the
Gulf increases.

..Bentley.. 01/06/2024

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