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Mesoscale Discussion 0009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024

Areas affected...portions of southern New England

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 070135Z - 070730Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow will slowly increase in coverage
across portions of southern New England this evening. Snowfall rates
of 1-2 in/hr are possible within the heaviest band late this evening
into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...As of 0130 UTC, regional radar and surface analysis
showed a broad area of stratiform precipitation ongoing across parts
of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Associated with an
approaching coastal low, periodic moderate to heavy snow/rain has
been observed within this precipitation over the last several hours.
Slow northeastward progression of the heaviest precip has been noted
with the primary east-west oriented band stretching from
east-central PA to Long Island Sound. Driven by strong low-level
warm advection ahead of the deepening coastal low, moderate to heavy
snow should slowly increase in coverage over portions of southern
New England late this evening and into the overnight hours. Rates
between 1 to 2 in/hour are possible within the primary band, though
there remains some uncertainty on how quickly the heaviest snow will
lift northward. Light snow has already been reported across parts of
RI, MA and CT but, regional model soundings and observed ceilings
above 4k feet suggest some low-level dry air remains in place.
Inland moisture advection and the approach of the surface low should
slowly cool and moisten the low-level thermodynamic profile
sufficiently for higher snow rates after 03z. Periods of moderate to
heavy snow will likely continue into the overnight hours.

..Lyons.. 01/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   41297318 41367356 41487386 41707418 41987436 42317449
            42887446 43367362 43527277 43587212 43497158 43137085
            43067073 42367073 42187068 41807105 41447191 41377230
            41297275 41297318 

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