Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 7 Administrators Share Posted January 7 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Monday morning. ...Discussion... A surface anticyclone over south-central TX will build east-northeast across the Deep South to the southern Appalachians through early Monday. This will aid in pushing the surface cold front across central FL southward across the remainder of the peninsula by about midday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible later this morning prior to frontal passage. Weak tropospheric lapse rates, deep-layer flow paralleling the front, and minor mid-level height rises all suggest severe potential is negligible. On the backside of the building anticyclone, return flow from the western Gulf will strengthen through the period, as a vigorous shortwave trough amplifies over the Southwest with deepening lee cyclogenesis off the southern Rockies. Elevated thunderstorm potential will increase rapidly early Monday morning from northwest TX to KS as mid-level height falls overspread the pronounced low-level warm conveyor. Some CAM guidance suggests this elevated convection will be able to organize into a line near/just prior to 12Z from southwest OK to the TX Big Country, as a 100-kt 500-mb speed max begins to emerge through the base of the trough. The TX Big Country vicinity may see strong wind gusts accompanying the line owing to parcels rooted closer to the surface. ..Grams/Lyons.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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