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SPC Jan 7, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

An increasingly amplified large-scale pattern will evolve over the
CONUS through tonight, highlighted by the quick exit of a minoring
shortwave trough off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today,
while a trough prominently amplifies over the Great Basin and
central/southern Rockies.

A few thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida
until around midday prior the cold front reaching the Florida
Straits. A few thunderstorms may also occur later today across parts
of Arizona and the Four Corners area as lapse rates steepen and
forcing for ascent increases in relation to the amplifying upper
trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected in either case.

Late tonight, the potential for elevated thunderstorms will increase
across the Plains, initially from northwest Texas into Kansas as
cooling aloft occurs and forcing for ascent increases in conjunction
with modest elevated moisture transport. Given the degree of
late-period mass response, some of the convection may linearly
organize late tonight/early Monday across the Texas Big Country into
southwest Oklahoma in the presence of very strong deep-layer
southwesterly winds. However, the cold/initially dry boundary layer
should preclude stronger/convectively enhanced wind gusts developing
in the surface layer.

..Guyer/Smith.. 01/07/2024

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