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SPC Jan 7, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible
late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest
Oklahoma.

...20Z Update...
Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed.

..Mosier.. 01/07/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/

...TX/OK...
A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will
amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. 
Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of
the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection
and lift - along with weak destabilization.  The result will likely
be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and
thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK.
 Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the
updraft strength will be modest.  However, given the strong low and
upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become
capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z).

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