Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 8 Administrators Share Posted January 8 SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... In the wake of a broad, but weakening, cyclone forecast to slowly migrate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes region, and downstream of amplified ridging within the split westerlies across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level troughing appears likely to encompass much of North America through this period. A couple of significant short wave perturbations digging to the east of the ridging will contribute to the maintenance of this troughing. One, emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is forecast to progress inland of Pacific Northwest through the Sierra Nevada into eastern Great Basin/Colorado Plateau vicinity by 12Z Thursday. Another, emerging from the northern Canadian Arctic vicinity, is forecast to turn southward into the Canadian Prairies and Rockies. In lower levels, a cold front trailing the lead cyclone appears likely to advance away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, while stalling and weakening near the Florida Straits/Keys vicinity through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, surface troughing may begin to deepen to the lee of the southern Rockies through the lower Rio Grande Valley, accompanied by modest boundary layer moistening and northward return across the western Gulf of Mexico. This may include surface dew point increases to around 60F near Texas coastal areas by late Wednesday night, beneath relatively warm, dry and capping lower/mid-tropospheric air. Beneath cold air across the Pacific Northwest, which may include an inland spreading cold core (around -35 C at 500 mb), some convection capable of producing lightning appears possible near coastal areas early in the period. Inland of the coast, probabilities for lightning appear increasingly negligible, due to a lingering generally cooler and drier boundary layer. However, convection with a flash or two of lightning might not be out of the question across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada and Sacramento Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 01/08/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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