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Mesoscale Discussion 0011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Areas affected...Southeast CO...Raton Mesa of northeast NM...far
western KS


Valid 081127Z - 081730Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour are expected
to begin between 13-15 UTC on a localized basis.  Surface gusts will
rapidly increase this morning (into the 35-60 mph range) and
coincide with more widespread 1 inch per hour snowfall rates.  These
conditions will lead to substantially reduced visibilities and
result in blizzard conditions beginning during the late morning
(15-18 UTC).

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a powerful mid-level
shortwave trough moving east across the Sangre de Cristos early this
morning.  Deep-layer forcing for ascent will continue to overspread
the central High Plains as the column saturates early this morning. 
Light to moderate snow will transition to localized heavy snow
(i.e., rates around 1 inch per hour) beginning in the 13-15 UTC
period according to the latest SREF and HREF model guidance.  Heavy
snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour will become widespread
during the 15-18 UTC period as both upslope flow strengthens south
of the Arkansas River and deep-layer ascent associated with the
cyclone intensifies.

Low-level flow is forecast to intensify markedly during the morning
with 250 m AGL flow increasing from less than 10 kt to 50 kt while
contributing to very strong gusts and substantially reduced
visibilities.  The strengthening of surface gusts into the 35-60 mph
range is expected to coincide with the onset of more widespread 1
inch per hour snowfall rates and result in blizzard conditions
during the 15-18 UTC period.

..Smith.. 01/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   38710125 38340135 37440205 37040272 36740375 36740440
            36970460 37230463 37630451 37800420 37730384 37760298
            38130244 38770186 38970153 38880133 38710125 

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