Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 8 Administrators Share Posted January 8 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The latest medium-range guidance (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) appear similar with the depiction of the evolving pattern late this week. Of particular note, one vigorous short wave impulse (emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, before digging inland across the Pacific coast into the Great Basin by early Thursday) is forecast to continue digging across the southern Rockies and Southwestern international border vicinity during the day Thursday, before rapidly pivoting across the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley through the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday. As it does, there appears increasing consensus that it will support strong surface cyclogenesis across the Mid South through lower Great Lakes vicinity late Thursday night through Friday evening. Latest guidance indicates that this will be accompanied by sufficient low-level moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico to support a destabilizing warm sector across parts of eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley late Thursday through Thursday night, aided by strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent. Coupled with intensifying wind fields and shear, this is expected to support the initiation of severe thunderstorm development, which seems likely to organize and be maintained within the swath of mid/upper support overspreading much of the Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states by Friday night. This may be accompanied by a swath of strong, damaging winds and the risk for tornadoes. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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