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SPC Jan 8, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook


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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The latest medium-range guidance (including the ECENS/GEFS and
ECMWF/GFS) appear similar with the depiction of the evolving pattern
late this week.  Of particular note, one vigorous short wave impulse
(emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, before digging
inland across the Pacific coast into the Great Basin by early
Thursday) is forecast to continue digging across the southern
Rockies and Southwestern international border vicinity during the
day Thursday, before rapidly pivoting across the southern Great
Plains/lower Mississippi Valley through the upper Ohio Valley/lower
Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday.  As it does, there appears increasing
consensus that it will support strong surface cyclogenesis across
the Mid South through lower Great Lakes vicinity late Thursday night
through Friday evening.

Latest guidance indicates that this will be accompanied by
sufficient low-level moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico to
support a destabilizing warm sector across parts of eastern Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley late Thursday through Thursday
night, aided by strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent.  Coupled
with intensifying wind fields and shear, this is expected to support
the initiation of severe thunderstorm development, which seems
likely to organize and be maintained within the swath of mid/upper
support overspreading much of the Gulf through southern Atlantic
Coast states by Friday night.  This may be accompanied by a swath of
strong, damaging winds and the risk for tornadoes.

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