Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 8 Administrators Share Posted January 8 MD 0012 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH TX Mesoscale Discussion 0012 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Areas affected...north TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081259Z - 081530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A developing squall line over western north TX will continue eastward across north TX this morning. The risk for a strong gust is likely very low. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a developing squall line from near San Angelo northeastward to Wichita Falls. The squall line is currently projected via linear extrapolation to move into the western suburbs of the DFW Metroplex around 11am CST (17 UTC). Surface analysis indicates relatively cool temperatures (near 50 deg F) over north TX within a strong low-level warm-air advection regime. The 12 UTC Fort Worth raob showed 500 J/kg MUCAPE with a cool/stable layer below 850 mb. Additional temperature/moisture advection will gradually warm/moisten the lowest 0.5 km AGL, but overcast skies and showers preceding the squall line will limit heating this morning. As a result, the propensity for surface-based instability will probably be negated and the squall line will likely remain elevated. Given this expectation, the risk for strong gusts will be low in association with the passage of the squall line and a severe thunderstorm watch will likely not be needed. ..Smith/Guyer.. 01/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 33319861 33559678 33379642 33049634 32599641 32269669 32029897 32359912 32719906 33319861 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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