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Mesoscale Discussion 0013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Areas affected...northwest KS...south-central NE

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 081339Z - 081745Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates around 1 to 1.5 inches per hour are
possible through the morning.

DISCUSSION...A mesoscale band of heavier snowfall rates appears to
be developing across northwest KS on the northern periphery of a
warm conveyor belt located over the southern-central Great Plains. 
Frontogenetic forcing for ascent is forecast to continue to
strengthen during the morning across western KS and eventually into
southern NE by late morning.  The 12 UTC Dodge City raob showed a
moist profile and an above-freezing layer from the surface through
800 mb.  A surface front is draped southwest to northeast from far
southwestern KS north-northeast into northwest KS (i.e., located to
the northwest of Dodge City).  The colder airmass north of the front
will support snow as the precipitation type.  Model guidance
indicates upwards of 0.10 to 0.15 inches per hour liquid-equivalent
precipitation across northwest KS this morning.  As a result of
nearly 10:1 snow ratios, expecting 1 to 1.5 inches per hour (locally
heavier bursts are possible) as lift continues to strengthen during
the morning.

..Smith.. 01/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   40030000 40149952 40109896 39989880 39709884 39569942
            38630058 38560091 38670115 38950127 39170123 40030000 

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