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Mesoscale Discussion 0015
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0940 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Areas affected...East Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 081540Z - 081745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered elevated thunderstorms over east Texas may begin
to pose a risk of hail in the strongest cores.  Watch issuance seems
unlikely at this time, but trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar/satellite loops show scattered showers and
thunderstorms slowly intensifying over parts of east TX.  This
activity is along the core of a strong southerly low-level jet, and
north of a surface warm front.  Parcels near the surface remain
stable.  But forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level
lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient elevated CAPE for the risk of a
few robust updrafts.  Low-level/deep-layer shear is quite strong,
which would support at least transient supercell structures as well.
 So far, trends of this activity have remained below severe limits,
and model guidance suggests it may still be several hours before a
more focused severe threat develops.  Nevertheless, trends will be
closely monitored for an increasing risk.

..Hart/Gleason.. 01/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   29979458 29649605 30029757 31229744 32349683 32629549
            32239408 30929390 29979458 

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