Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 8 Administrators Share Posted January 8 MD 0015 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0015 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0940 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Areas affected...East Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081540Z - 081745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered elevated thunderstorms over east Texas may begin to pose a risk of hail in the strongest cores. Watch issuance seems unlikely at this time, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Recent radar/satellite loops show scattered showers and thunderstorms slowly intensifying over parts of east TX. This activity is along the core of a strong southerly low-level jet, and north of a surface warm front. Parcels near the surface remain stable. But forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient elevated CAPE for the risk of a few robust updrafts. Low-level/deep-layer shear is quite strong, which would support at least transient supercell structures as well. So far, trends of this activity have remained below severe limits, and model guidance suggests it may still be several hours before a more focused severe threat develops. Nevertheless, trends will be closely monitored for an increasing risk. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 29979458 29649605 30029757 31229744 32349683 32629549 32239408 30929390 29979458 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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