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SPC Jan 8, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z


Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are
expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early
Tuesday morning, spanning southeast Texas and southern Louisiana
across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida

...Northern Texas/ArkLaTex Today...
Thunderstorms erupted overnight within the warm conveyor extending
across north Texas into Oklahoma/Kansas, which includes some
well-organized linear structures across western north Texas/Big
Country in the predawn hours. These more organized storms are
elevated and occurring parallel to robustly strengthening deep-layer
southwesterly winds. Severe hail potential will tend to be mitigated
by a more linear convective mode, while severe-caliber wind gust
potential, particularly with northward regional extent, will tend to
be limited by the coolness/stability of the boundary layer.
Regardless, some stronger thunderstorm wind gusts could occur
through the afternoon. For additional short-term details, see
Mesoscale Discussion 12.

...East/southeast Texas to southwest Louisiana through Evening...
Secondary surface low development is expected across east Texas
through the afternoon with an evolving surface triple point across
east-central Texas, all while mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints
become increasingly common across southeast Texas/southwest
Louisiana. Widespread cloud cover and scattered warm advection
showers will initially limit solar heating, but inhibition should
weaken through the afternoon as deep-layer ascent increases and
gradual warming of the boundary layer supports 1200-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorms should gradually evolve/deepen as
forcing for ascent increases this afternoon, coincident with strong
low-level and deep-layer shear profiles sufficient for supercells
and an increasing tornado/damaging wind risk. A few semi-discrete
storms/supercells may develop ahead of more linearly organized
storms evolving near the cold front during the afternoon and
evening. A strong tornado could occur given the magnitude of the
low-level shear/SRH.

...Middle Gulf Coast tonight through early Tuesday...
A particularly active severe-weather scenario is expected tonight
through early Tuesday across the region, spanning areas from
southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the
western Florida Panhandle. This may include multiple rounds of
fast-moving severe storms, with concerns for nocturnal strong
tornadoes and wind damage through the overnight hours as extremely
strong low/mid-level winds influence the region in tandem with an
inland developing warm/moist sector.

Scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms should develop/increase
and expand northeastward across today to the north of a warm front
as the warm conveyor gradually refocuses eastward across the region.
Some guidance suggests this convection could be fairly extensive,
which will probably hinder the northward extent of richer maritime
air later today/tonight, tending to focus the highest probability
severe risks in coastal areas (generally within 75 miles from the
Gulf of Mexico). 

Aided by a surface wave across the ArkLaMiss and eventually into
Alabama, in the wake of the aforementioned elevated storms earlier
in the day, an influx of higher theta-e will move inland tonight
with an increasing potential for surface-based storms across the
aforementioned coastal regions. Semi-discrete supercells capable of
tornado potential may first increase tonight near the
inland-advancing warm front, which will precede (to the east of)
increasingly organized linear convection near the cold front/surface
wave across Louisiana/Mississippi.

This will be a time when deep-layer/low-level winds are dramatically
strengthening, accentuated by a 70+ kt low-level jet. Some portions
of the region, especially parts of southeast Louisiana and far
southern Mississippi, may experience multiple rounds of severe
storms that have a tornado risk. Regardless, a consequential
damaging wind/tornado risk will regionally increase nocturnally,
including the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes, in multiple
regimes potentially including some semi-discrete near-coastal
supercells as well as the more prevalent evolving quasi-linear
convection that is likely to reach southern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle by the predawn hours (roughly 09Z-12Z).

..Guyer/Smith.. 01/08/2024

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