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SPC Jan 8, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z


Severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and
southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for
very strong and damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes.

A powerful mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the
lower/mid MS Valley toward the eastern CONUS on Tuesday, as an
embedded deep-layer cyclone rapidly deepens and moves from near the
Ozark Plateau toward the Great Lakes. A secondary surface wave may
develop near the intersection of a eastward-moving cold front and
northward-advancing warm front and move east-northeastward across
parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Tidewater region. 

A substantial severe-thunderstorm episode, including some potential
for widespread damaging wind and a few strong tornadoes, still
appears possible from the northeast Gulf Coast into parts of GA and
the Carolinas Tuesday. 

...Parts of AL/GA/FL...
An extensive QLCS will be ongoing at the start of the forecast
period (12Z Tuesday morning) from the north-central Gulf of Mexico
into the FL Panhandle, south/east AL, and approaching western GA.
Intense low-level flow/shear (with 0-1 km SRH in excess of 500
m2/s2) will support a threat of tornadoes and widespread damaging
wind across areas where richer low-level moisture can penetrate
inland along the Gulf Coast, which is most likely during the morning
from southeast AL/southwest GA into the FL Panhandle. A couple
strong tornadoes are possible, especially in association with any
prefrontal or line-embedded supercells. Even in areas farther north
where convection remains somewhat elevated and dewpoints only rise
into the low 60s F, intense flow fields may still support a
damaging-wind risk during the morning. 

Some modest weakening of the QLCS is possible from late morning into
early afternoon, as it moves into an area where low-level
trajectories will be emanating from a somewhat cooler and less moist
region across the far northeast Gulf. However, very intense wind
fields will continue to support organized convection, with a
continued threat of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Diurnal
heating from southeast GA into the FL Peninsula will support
maintenance and perhaps some localized intensification through the
afternoon into at least the early evening, with a damaging-wind and
line-embedded tornado threat likely to reach Atlantic coastal
regions of GA and much of FL.  

A plume of somewhat richer low-level moisture that will initially be
off the GA/FL Atlantic coast will advance northward into the
Carolinas through the day, in conjunction with the warm front and in
advance of the approaching QLCS/cold front. Widespread cloudiness
will likely limit diurnal heating across the Carolinas, but
substantial low-level moistening within the warm-advection regime
could support prefrontal supercell development during the afternoon.
Substantial low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH potentially increasing
above 400 m2/s2) will support a tornado threat with any mature
supercells within this regime, including potential for a couple
strong tornadoes. 

Regardless of prefrontal supercell development, the primary QLCS
will move through the Carolinas region during the afternoon and
evening, with very strong low-level flow/shear continuing to support
a threat of widespread damaging wind and a few line-embedded
tornadoes. A separate 10%/significant tornado area has been
maintained across the Carolinas, for a combination of the prefrontal
supercell potential (which remains somewhat uncertain) and eventual
passage of the primary QLCS.

..Dean.. 01/08/2024

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