Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 8 Administrators Share Posted January 8 MD 0017 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA Mesoscale Discussion 0017 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Southwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 081854Z - 082100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are continuing to slowly intensify, with the issuance of a tornado watch likely in the next 1-3 hours. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue to intensify across parts of east TX and western LA, mainly along and north of a surface warm front that extends from north of HOU to east of ACT. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints have risen into the mid/upper 60s, with MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg. VAD profiles near the warm front show very strong low-level vertical shear with 0-3km SRH values of 500 and 900 m2/s2 at HGX and LCH. Thus far, thunderstorms have been elevated with primarily a large hail threat. Recent CAM solutions suggest that continued daytime heating will begin to aid convective development along the immediate warm front to the west of HOU in the next couple of hours, which would potentially have a greater risk of surface-based supercells and an attendant threat of tornadoes - along with large hail and damaging winds. This area is being closely monitored for convective development and potential tornado watch issuance. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX... LAT...LON 30659619 31249496 31269332 30059141 29259136 29269219 29529371 29529471 29489630 29729692 30659619 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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