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Mesoscale Discussion 0017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 081854Z - 082100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are continuing to slowly intensify, with the
issuance of a tornado watch likely in the next 1-3 hours.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue to intensify across
parts of east TX and western LA, mainly along and north of a surface
warm front that extends from north of HOU to east of ACT.  To the
south of the front, surface dewpoints have risen into the mid/upper
60s, with MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg.  VAD profiles near the
warm front show very strong low-level vertical shear with 0-3km SRH
values of 500 and 900 m2/s2 at HGX and LCH.  

Thus far, thunderstorms have been elevated with primarily a large
hail threat.  Recent CAM solutions suggest that continued daytime
heating will begin to aid convective development along the immediate
warm front to the west of HOU in the next couple of hours, which
would potentially have a greater risk of surface-based supercells
and an attendant threat of tornadoes - along with large hail and
damaging winds.  This area is being closely monitored for convective
development and potential tornado watch issuance.

..Hart/Gleason.. 01/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   30659619 31249496 31269332 30059141 29259136 29269219
            29529371 29529471 29489630 29729692 30659619 

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