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SPC Jan 8, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA...PARTS OF THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT AND THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and
southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for
very strong and damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A powerful mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the
lower/mid MS Valley toward the eastern CONUS on Tuesday, as an
embedded deep-layer cyclone rapidly deepens and moves from near the
Ozark Plateau toward the Great Lakes. A secondary surface wave may
develop near the intersection of a eastward-moving cold front and
northward-advancing warm front and move east-northeastward across
parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Tidewater region. 

A substantial severe-thunderstorm episode, including some potential
for widespread damaging wind and a few strong tornadoes, still
appears possible from the northeast Gulf Coast into parts of GA and
the Carolinas Tuesday. 

...Parts of AL/GA/FL...
An extensive QLCS will be ongoing at the start of the forecast
period (12Z Tuesday morning) from the north-central Gulf of Mexico
into the FL Panhandle, south/east AL, and approaching western GA.
Intense low-level flow/shear (with 0-1 km SRH in excess of 500
m2/s2) will support a threat of tornadoes and widespread damaging
wind across areas where richer low-level moisture can penetrate
inland along the Gulf Coast, which is most likely during the morning
from southeast AL/southwest GA into the FL Panhandle. A couple
strong tornadoes are possible, especially in association with any
prefrontal or line-embedded supercells. Even in areas farther north
where convection remains somewhat elevated and dewpoints only rise
into the low 60s F, intense flow fields may still support a
damaging-wind risk during the morning. 

Some modest weakening of the QLCS is possible from late morning into
early afternoon, as it moves into an area where low-level
trajectories will be emanating from a somewhat cooler and less moist
region across the far northeast Gulf. However, very intense wind
fields will continue to support organized convection, with a
continued threat of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Diurnal
heating from southeast GA into the FL Peninsula will support
maintenance and perhaps some localized intensification through the
afternoon into at least the early evening, with a damaging-wind and
line-embedded tornado threat likely to reach Atlantic coastal
regions of GA and much of FL.  

...Carolinas...
A plume of somewhat richer low-level moisture that will initially be
off the GA/FL Atlantic coast will advance northward into the
Carolinas through the day, in conjunction with the warm front and in
advance of the approaching QLCS/cold front. Widespread cloudiness
will likely limit diurnal heating across the Carolinas, but
substantial low-level moistening within the warm-advection regime
could support prefrontal supercell development during the afternoon.
Substantial low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH potentially increasing
above 400 m2/s2) will support a tornado threat with any mature
supercells within this regime, including potential for a couple
strong tornadoes. 

Regardless of prefrontal supercell development, the primary QLCS
will move through the Carolinas region during the afternoon and
evening, with very strong low-level flow/shear continuing to support
a threat of widespread damaging wind and a few line-embedded
tornadoes. A separate 10%/significant tornado area has been
maintained across the Carolinas, for a combination of the prefrontal
supercell potential (which remains somewhat uncertain) and eventual
passage of the primary QLCS.

..Dean.. 01/08/2024

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