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Mesoscale Discussion 0020
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Areas affected...Southeast LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 082138Z - 082345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms will eventually spread into southeast
Louisiana, but the shorter-term risk is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis (as verified by visible
imagery) shows the surface warm front extending from Jefferson Davis
Parish southeastward and off the coast of southeast LA.  The
boundary is lifting northward, and moist/unstable surface conditions
should move into southeast LA in the next few hours.  However,
radar/satellite imagery suggest very little robust convection to the
south of the warm front, and recent HRRR solutions also lend doubt
regarding thunderstorm coverage in the next few hours.  

Nevertheless with very strong shear profiles in place, and
increasing low-level moisture and instability, this area will be
closely monitored for increasing thunderstorms south of the warm
front.  If this trend develops, a tornado watch will be considered. 
Otherwise, it might be a few hours from now as the main cold front
approaches from the west.

..Hart/Gleason.. 01/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   28768960 29109085 30029165 30879142 31119026 30178894
            29218879 28768960 

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