Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 8 Administrators Share Posted January 8 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA...PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for very strong and damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A powerful mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower/mid MS Valley toward the eastern CONUS on Tuesday, as an embedded deep-layer cyclone rapidly deepens and moves from near the Ozark Plateau toward the Great Lakes. A secondary surface wave may develop near the intersection of a eastward-moving cold front and northward-advancing warm front and move east-northeastward across parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Tidewater region. A substantial severe-thunderstorm episode, including some potential for widespread damaging wind and a few strong tornadoes, still appears possible from the northeast Gulf Coast into parts of GA and the Carolinas Tuesday. ...Parts of AL/GA/FL... An extensive QLCS will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period (12Z Tuesday morning) from the north-central Gulf of Mexico into the FL Panhandle, south/east AL, and approaching western GA. Intense low-level flow/shear (with 0-1 km SRH in excess of 500 m2/s2) will support a threat of tornadoes and widespread damaging wind across areas where richer low-level moisture can penetrate inland along the Gulf Coast, which is most likely during the morning from southeast AL/southwest GA into the FL Panhandle. A couple strong tornadoes are possible, especially in association with any prefrontal or line-embedded supercells. Even in areas farther north where convection remains somewhat elevated and dewpoints only rise into the low 60s F, intense flow fields may still support a damaging-wind risk during the morning. Some modest weakening of the QLCS is possible from late morning into early afternoon, as it moves into an area where low-level trajectories will be emanating from a somewhat cooler and less moist region across the far northeast Gulf. However, very intense wind fields will continue to support organized convection, with a continued threat of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Diurnal heating from southeast GA into the FL Peninsula will support maintenance and perhaps some localized intensification through the afternoon into at least the early evening, with a damaging-wind and line-embedded tornado threat likely to reach Atlantic coastal regions of GA and much of FL. ...Carolinas... A plume of somewhat richer low-level moisture that will initially be off the GA/FL Atlantic coast will advance northward into the Carolinas through the day, in conjunction with the warm front and in advance of the approaching QLCS/cold front. Widespread cloudiness will likely limit diurnal heating across the Carolinas, but substantial low-level moistening within the warm-advection regime could support prefrontal supercell development during the afternoon. Substantial low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH potentially increasing above 400 m2/s2) will support a tornado threat with any mature supercells within this regime, including potential for a couple strong tornadoes. Regardless of prefrontal supercell development, the primary QLCS will move through the Carolinas region during the afternoon and evening, with very strong low-level flow/shear continuing to support a threat of widespread damaging wind and a few line-embedded tornadoes. A separate 10%/significant tornado area has been maintained across the Carolinas, for a combination of the prefrontal supercell potential (which remains somewhat uncertain) and eventual passage of the primary QLCS. ..Dean.. 01/08/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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