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SPC Jan 9, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z


Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
tornadoes will continue shifting across the Gulf Coast region
through early Tuesday morning, from southern Louisiana eastward to
the western Florida Panhandle.  Strong tornadoes are possible.

Strong/occasionally severe thunderstorms are ongoing this evening --
near and ahead of a cold front that currently stretches from the
Ozarks southward across north-central Louisiana, and then
southwestward along the Texas Coast.  Ahead of the cold front,
warm/moist air continues streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico,
with a warm front draped west-northwest to east-southeast across
southern Louisiana.

The warm front continues to make gradual northward/northeastward
progress in tandem with the eastward advance of the cold front,
which will allow the narrow warm sector between the two boundaries
to shift across the central Gulf Coast region through the remainder
of the period.

While some risk for hail will persist overnight even north of the
warm front, the primary severe risk will remain focused near and
south of this boundary, where dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s
continue to support an amply unstable airmass for strong updrafts.

The main contributor to the degree of wind/tornado potential
currently forecast remains the very strong -- and intensifying --
deep-layer wind field preceding the main upper system (that is now
advancing into/across the central/southern Plains).  As the
southerly low-level jet further strengthens across this region, atop
southeasterly surface winds in proximity of the warm front, shear
highly favorable for strongly rotating supercells is evident.  While
weak boundary-layer stability even within the warm sector --
especially with eastward extent overnight -- should place some limit
on the overall tornado/wind risk, the offsetting high-end wind field
across this region will support potential for significant severe
weather locally, both in the form of damaging winds, and strong
tornadoes.  Risk should extend as far east as central portions of
the Florida Panhandle through latter stages of the period.

..Goss.. 01/09/2024

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